Friday, March 9, 2012

How soft is Rick Santorum's surge? | Harry J Enten

Santorum became the latest Romney, perhaps the greatest rival. But in this volatile GOP race, we have been here before

The 2012 season was the Republican candidate complete primary surges. Bachmann, Cain, Gingrich, Perry, Santorum and Trump have surges of support. Many times these waves are quite easy to detect. Rick Santorum witnesses increased after Colorado, Minnesota, Missouri wins on Tuesday. A rose by almost 20 percentage points nationally and in Michigan. The media, in turn, responded with the usual and expected "just nothing" Santorum items. What is less often reported is when they found "savior of the Republican Party" Candidates are beginning to stabilize and then fall back to earth.

Newt Gingrich was at its peak in early December. Lead in the polls coming out of Iowa, Saturday, December 10, Gingrich, apparently consolidated its position as a prime candidate again with a performance of "strong" debate. Mitt Romney, is perhaps the most memorable gaffe of his campaign, Rick Perry, paris $ 10,000. Rick Santorum, was on the radar of absolutely nobody.

Then a funny thing happened ... Everything began to unravel by Newt Gingrich.

The collapse began innocently. Public Policy Polling first reported Sunday that Gingrich's favorable ratings dropped. Then on Monday, American Research Group came out with a survey finding Gingrich lead to six points well below the 10-15 point lead most investigators were searching for the previous week). It is time for the next discussion on Thursday, December 15, Gingrich has not resulted in a single survey. How not to see the biggest most analysts implosion Gingrich is coming?

Most experts on TV are terribly influenced by the culture media. While they were watching Gingrich is well in a debate, most Iowans have witnessed and being influenced by negative news Gingrich is in charge of Super Pac Mitt Romney, to restore our future. The ads are not all saying something that politicians do not already know, but it turns out that most Iowans average had forgotten all the bad things about Newt Gingrich. Once recalled, Ball Gingrich appeared.

Three weeks after the failure of Iowa Gingrich, Rick Santorum, was riding a huge wave in the final seconds to win (as it turned out later) Iowa caucus victory catapulted a very Santorum good result in the New Hampshire primary. Initial investigation conducted by Suffolk University showed Santorum from 3-point just before Iowa, 11 points in four days.

Then, as if from nowhere, the upward movement of Santorum stopped. I doubt Santorum well in New Hampshire, but still, I was surprised that ended less than 10% of the vote. That the more moderate voters in New Hampshire or the lack of progress on the Santorum debate it is impossible to know exactly why Santorum increased pt 1 failed.

Eleven days after the first wave decreased Santorum, Gingrich second rally has peaked. Encouraged by the performance of bravery two debates (including a memorable confrontation with John King of CNN), Gingrich won 25 points in five days and overturned romp Romney for the nomination by winning the South Carolina primary on Saturday 21 January.

A week after the victory in Florida Romney, Rick Santorum, won in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri. Fox News poll showed immediate movement Santorum poll. Nationally, it increased from 17% just before the three competitions, only 30% after them, while Romney was reduced by 35% to 30% during the same period. Almost all investigations live interview as a series of national competitions have provided Santorum February-March percentage points ahead.


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