Monday, October 10, 2011

Euro crisis spreads and puts the world economy at risk

When G20 Finance Ministers meet in Paris next week, the risks are enormous, both for Europe and the World

When the finance ministers of G-20 economies met this weekend, which could be excused for a sense of deja vu ill. This time it's Paris, not London, but in May 2009 when Gordon Brown has those in power in the global economy, and in the Docklands, trying to avoid a crisis of control and dragging the global economy in recession. This time, however, there is much less political or goodwill.

place in the United States, where the collapse of Lehman Brothers sent to consumers and investors panic, this time the focus is firmly in the euro area, and time is running out. Greece is on the verge of bankruptcy if it receives a new infusion of cash, and the bond vigilantes are focusing their fire on the economy much more Italian and Spanish, which had reduced its debt by Moody on Friday. Meanwhile, many economists believe the euro area as a whole may have already slipped into recession.

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interwoven global financial system is not only a problem for Europe. BRIC economies - Brazil, Russia, India and China - have warned that the establishment of the euro zone debt crisis should be an urgent priority, while the U.S. has seen its share drop banks because of their exposure to Greek debt potentially toxic. The Heads of State G-20 meeting in Cannes on 3-4 November. In the meantime, the countries of the zone must have a credible plan.

However, for the euro area members of the G20, including China, the United States and the United Kingdom, meeting this week may be as frustrating as his stay in Washington, where many repeatedly urged his counterparts from the euro area to get a grip on the crisis in spiral and were greeted with disdain or outright hostility.

To finance ministers of the euro area, the challenges are complex, interrelated. First, decide whether and for how long, to maintain funding of the Greeks. Greece received its first rescue last spring, and a second rescue plan was agreed in July, in the context of panic in global markets. Without the very delayed release of the last 8 billion ? (£ 6.8 billion) of the first loan tranche, Greece could run out of money in the coming weeks, but so far, despite a dizzying number of austerity programs, Athens failed to convince its creditors to hand over cash.

Meanwhile, parliaments around the area of ??the 17 voting members were thrown into the agreement reached in July, which means increasing the powers of the bailout funds in the euro area, the stability European Financial (EFSF), allowing you to buy the debts of struggling economies when they come under pressure from investors and lend money to members who need to save their banking sector.

Among the influential people in the annual meetings of the IMF in Washington, spoke of "mobilizing" the EFSF turn its ? 440 billion of firepower, to something closer to 2 billion ?. But financial experts say it is difficult to make the numbers add up. Unlike other multilateral lenders like the World Bank, the EFSF not a guarantee call on government resources by your sponsor, or "preferred creditor" status to ensure they are paid, even if one of his supporters went out of business.

This means that the bonds issued to finance its activities involving a risk of default, and can be excluded from a AAA rating, and possibly to attract high interest rates. However, it is unclear whether the administration of a direct call EFSF resources of Germany would be constitutional, let alone acceptable to taxpayers.

until the question of the size and role of EFSF resolved, the European Central Bank is the only institution that can help. He reluctantly agreed to buy the debt to Italian and Spanish borrowing costs to more manageable levels that bond markets have attacked during the summer. But even this relatively modest cost of intervention of the resignation of two members from Germany, Axel Weber and Juergen Stark, and its outgoing president, Jean-Claude Trichet has been very protective of their independence.
incoming ECB chief Mario Draghi, an Italian, whose appointment was controversial in Germany, it is unlikely that want to be seen to play a role in saving their home countries affected by the crisis , that the politics of the situation even more difficult.

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