Next Gen News

Public anger did not overthrow the regime but the Republic has been damaged, and infighting threatens its continued stability

The 10th Iranian presidential elections, which took place on 12 June 2009, changed the face of the Islamic Republic forever. The unprecedented outpouring of public anger damaged the legitimacy of Ayatollah Khamenei's regime like never before. At the same time, the ensuing infighting, which has taken place within his regime since the election, has seriously damaged the level of consensus between the different factions within the regime.

Although the demonstrations did not lead to a revolution, their consequences mean that we are no longer dealing with the same country.

The biggest strategic consequence of the event is the fact that Ali Khamenei is more than ever before fearful of a rapprochement with the west. This is why he scuttled Obama's nuclear swap offer last year. Otherwise, he could have continued enriching uranium while enjoying good economic and trade relations. So fearful in fact that he is ready to alienate the Russians and the Chinese over it. This is despite the fact their support of Iran in the UN security council for many years.

In complete contrast to his relations with the west, last year's events have meant that Iran's supreme leader more than ever relies on his relations with sympathetic Muslim countries and movements such as Hamas and Hezbollah. Since his domestic legitimacy has been tarnished, his view is that such allies can be used as a new pillar of stability for his regime since he can use his influence with them to ward off any western advances against his country, be they political or military.

His relations with fellow Muslim countries, especially Shia ones have also become more important for the survival of the regime, due to the important question of his succession. The supreme leader of Iran sees himself as God's representative on earth to all Shias. The people of Iran may not have a say as to who he will be, however it's not the same case with the religious Shia leaders of Iraq and Lebanon. The Islamic Republic sees their support as crucial, not only for political reasons, but also for military ones.

This is because these days the city of Najaf in Iraq is becoming the most important Shia religious centre in world, due to the presence of Grand Ayatollah Sistani. Many Shias see him as the most qualified religious scholar in the Shia world, even more than Khamenei. If Khamenei wants his successor to receive the support of Shias outside of Iran, in important places such as Iraq, he will need the approval of Sistani and the clergy in Najaf.

There are already unconfirmed reports that Khamenei tried to bump up the religious stature of his son Mojtaba, in a bid to groom him as the next supreme leader. However, Mojtaba's speedy "ascent", thanks to his father's connections and stature, and not his qualifications, was not recognised by Grand Ayatollah Sistani, thus producing some obstacles for Iran's supreme leader and his bid to groom his son.

This does not mean that it is the end of the road. Rather, what it means is that Khamenei will now be trying even more to cultivate and improve his relations with Sistani and others important clerics in the Shia world. Otherwise, with his legitimacy badly damaged at home, unless he manages the question of his succession in an efficient manner, the infighting after his death over his position could prove to be mortal to the stability of the Islamic Republic.

Internally, the wide gaps in the regime are for all to see. The infighting between Mahmound Ahmadinejad and other conservatives have reached new highs. In a strange twist of fate, although Ahmadinejad "won" the presidential election, since then his standing and credibility have become the biggest losers. He is now seen as a weak, incompetent official, who is only there because of his close relations with Iran's supreme leader. This was witnessed during the nomination of his ministers for his 2009 government. Mohammad Reza Bahonar, the deputy head of the Majles openly declared that if it wasn't for the supreme leader's instructions, the majority of Ahmadinejad's nominated cabinet would have been rejected by the parliament.

Ahmadinejad's disputed elections did not overthrow the Islamic Republic of Iran. It is still walking, albeit with a limp. The Islamic leg is standing straight, the Republic one is bent and damaged. That damage was self inflicted. Many still question how long the Islamic leg will be able to support the whole body.