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Despite the success of the New Flemish Alliance in the general election, those wanting a break-up of Belgium are in the minority

Reports of the impending death of Belgium are much exaggerated. The success of the separatist New Flemish Alliance party in Sunday's Belgian general election will be seen by some as evidence that Belgium is finally about to fall apart. But those who gleefully await the implosion of a country at the heart of the European Union are likely to be disappointed.

The election results confirm that many in Dutch- and French-speaking communities find the complexities of the present Belgian federal state constitution frustrating. There is also growing social tension over the consequences of the global crisis, which has hit Belgium and left it with massive debt. But those Flemings who want a complete break-up of Belgium with an independent Flanders remain a minority.

This is not the first allegedly existential crisis that has wracked Belgium in its 180-year history. The very creation of the Belgian state in 1830, bringing together the two different language communities, owed much to the intervention of Britain's imperial prime minister, Lord Palmerston, who was anxious to create a buffer state between the Netherlands and France. The political elites in both Flanders, in the north and Wallonia, in the south were actually French speaking.

The impact of the first industrial revolution also primarily benefited the French-speaking communities in Wallonia and left the mainly agricultural Flemings (the majority of the country) economically and politically disadvantaged. Flemish resentment at being treated as culturally inferior by an arrogant Francophone establishment encouraged the development of Flemish nationalism. Some extreme Flemish nationalists were even willing to collaborate with the occupying Germans in both world wars in pursuit of their aims.

In the past 25 years Flanders has become by far the more economically successful part of the country, while Wallonia â€" like Britain â€" has struggled with the dire social consequences of deindustrialisation. As a result of successive political deals done as a result of the "language wars" a great deal of power has already been devolved to the elected regional governments of Flanders and Wallonia. The main unresolved problem has been the status of the capital, Brussels â€" a mainly French speaking city inside Flemish territory and especially the complicated bilingual status of some Brussels suburbs in Flanders.

The rise of the New Flemish Alliance and its hitherto largely unknown leader, Bart de Wever, owes much to the widespread popular discontent with the Flemish political establishment parties (notably the Christian Democrats and Liberals) who have provided the leaders of most recent Belgian coalition governments. They and their French-speaking counterparts on the centre-right have seemed immobile in the face of the economic and financial crisis.

But, as De Wever, was quick to point out, the great majority of Flemings still voted for "pro-Belgium" parties rather than the nationalists. He accepted that if his party is to join a new government there will have to be a negotiated compromise with the other parties and he has even surprisingly indicated that he may accept the leader of the French-speaking Socialist party, Elio di Rupo, who emerged as the other major victor in the election, as the next prime minister.

The Flemish nationalists acknowledge that major policy areas such as defence and justice should remain Belgian until they can be transferred to the responsibility of a fully federal EU. Since this is an unlikely development in the near future, the nationalists will, in practice, settle for a further devolution of powers to the regions but within the Belgian federal state. Negotiations to form the next government will be long and difficult. Success or failure will probably come down to the thorny issue of the status of the Brussels region and the extent to which social security should no longer be a matter for the Belgian government but transferred instead to the regions â€" anathema to the dominant parties of the left in Wallonia.

If no compromise emerges until later this year, the present centre-right coalition, led by Yves Leterme, will have to assume responsibility for the rotating presidency of the EU, which passes to Belgium at the end of this month. This is less of a problem now that the Lisbon treaty has transferred the leadership of the EU to the new long-term president of the European council, Herman van Rompuy who is a veteran former Belgian prime minister.

The leaders of the New Flemish Alliance know their problem now will be getting acceptance from their own party on the compromises Belgian realities require if they are to be in government. "Compromis a la Belge", although sometimes scorned by other Europeans, has proved a more civilised way to manage crises than resorting to the armed conflicts, which have plagued other parts of the continent.