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We lowered our long-term rating to the U.S., because we know that the continuing controversy over raising the statutory debt brake and the related tax policy debate, that show a further short-term progress, the growth of public spending, particularly on entitlements to believe, or when reaching an agreement on a turnover is less likely than we previously thought and will remain a troubled and controversial process. We also believe that the fiscal consolidation plan agreed upon, Congress and the administration this week, below the amount that we believe is necessary to stabilize the general government debt burden falls through the middle of the decade.

Our assessment was the reduction of our look at the rising public debt and our perception of greater political uncertainty in accordance with our criteria (\ see "Sovereign rating methodology and assumptions government," 30 June 2011, prompted in particular  36 - 41) . Nevertheless, we see the U.S. federal government 's other economic, monetary and external credit attributes, which form the basis for the sovereign rating, as largely unchanged.

We have taken the ratings from CreditWatch because the second August passage of the Budget Control Amendment 2011 is no immediate threat of default by perceived delays to increase the government 's debt ceiling was put away. In addition, we believe that the act sufficient clarity so that we offer to assess the likely course of U.S. fiscal policy over the next years.

The political brinksmanship of the last months shows what we as America 's governance and politics less and less stable, less effective and less predictable than what we previously thought to look. The statutory debt brake, and the risk of failure become political bargaining chips in the debate on tax policy. \ Despite this year's wide-ranging debate, have, in our view the differences between the political parties to bridge to be extremely difficult, and, as we see it, the resulting agreement fell well short of the comprehensive program of fiscal consolidation that some proponents until recently had planned. Republicans and Democrats have only been able to accept relatively modest reductions in discretionary spending, while the transfer to the Select Committee decisions on further action. It seems that now, new revenues have dropped dramatically on the menu of policy options. In addition, the plan only minor policy changes on Medicare and little change in other claims, the mitigation of which we and most other independent observers regard as the key to long-term sustainability of public finances.

Our opinion is that elected officials wary of tackling the structural issues needed to effectively to the growing U.S. national debt in a way that values ??with a "AAA" rating and with "AAA 'sovereign counterparts (see Sovereign rating methodology and assumptions remain government, "30 June 2011, especially   36-41). In our view, weakens the difficulties in establishing a consensus on the fiscal policy of the government 's ability to finance public and directs attention of the debate about how to achieve administrative, more balanced and dynamic economic growth in an era of fiscal stringency and private debt (ibid.). A new political consensus could be (or not), having caused the 2012 elections, but we believe that until then the government debt burden likely to be higher, the required medium-term fiscal consolidation potentially larger, and the turning point on the U.S. population 's demographics and other age-related spending rider closer to the hand (see "Global Aging 2011: the U.S., Going Gray is probably more cost-Green, now "21 June 2011).

The act calls for as much as $2.4 trillion of reductions in expenditure growth over the 10 years through 2021. These cuts will be implemented in two steps: the $917 billion agreed to initially, followed by an additional $1.5 trillion that the newly formed Congressional Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction is supposed to recommend by November 2011. The act contains no measures to raise taxes or otherwise enhance revenues, though the committee could recommend them.

We note that in a letter to Congress on August 1, 2011, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated total budgetary savings under the act to be at least $2.1 trillion over the next 10 years relative to its baseline assumptions. In updating our own fiscal projections, with certain modifications outlined below, we have relied on the CBO's latest "Alternate Fiscal Scenario" of June 2011, updated to include the CBO assumptions contained in its August 1 letter to Congress. In general, the CBO's "Alternate Fiscal Scenario" assumes a continuation of recent Congressional action overriding existing law.

Our revised upside scenario–which, other things being equal, we view as consistent with the outlook on the 'AA+' long-term rating being revised to stable–retains these same macroeconomic assumptions. In addition, it incorporates $950 billion of new revenues on the assumption that the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts for high earners lapse from 2013 onwards, as the Administration is advocating. In this scenario, we project that the net general government debt would rise from an estimated 74% of GDP by the end of 2011 to 77% in 2015 and to 78% by 2021.